Gemma 4 26B-A4B on Mac Studio M3 Ultra 512 GB
25.806B (3.8B active) on 512 GB at 819 GB/s. Hardware details · Model details
Memory budget at 8K context
How the estimate is calculated
- Decode: reading 3.8B active parameters at 8.50 bits/weight takes 6.96 ms at 819 GB/s x 71% achieved efficiency.
- MoE routing penalty of 15% applied: expert gathers are less bandwidth-efficient than a dense sweep.
- Prefill: 57 TFLOPS (FP16) x 1.72 calibrated against measured prefill on this platform x 22% assumed model-FLOPs utilisation, divided by 2 x 9.9B parameters per token.
- Prefill uses 9.9B effective parameters, not the 3.8B active in decode: a batch of hundreds of tokens routes across most of the expert pool.
- MoE decode depends on how well the engine batches expert gathers; real results vary more than for dense models.
- Prefill throughput is highly engine-dependent. Flash attention, batch size and quantized KV all move this number substantially, and for sparse mixture-of-experts models it is the least reliable figure we produce.
- This is a calculated estimate, not a measurement. It assumes a single request, a short prompt, no speculative decoding and a warm model already resident in memory.
Estimator version estimator_v1. Stored with every estimated row so old estimates can be regenerated when the model improves.
| Quantization | Weights | Total needed | Utilisation | Fit | Max context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MLX 4-bit | 14.1 GB | 17.4 GB | 4% | Comfortable | 256K |
Q4_K_M | 15.0 GB | 18.3 GB | 4% | Comfortable | 256K |
Q8_0recommended | 26.0 GB | 29.7 GB | 7% | Comfortable | 256K |
BF16 | 48.1 GB | 52.4 GB | 12% | Comfortable | 256K |
The $100 comparison uses the Codex Pro 5x / Claude Max 5x plans. A fixed planning conversion is used for USD. This compares monthly spend only: subscriptions have usage limits, local hardware has different capabilities and constraints, and taxes or regional pricing may change the charged amount. Prices checked 7 September 2026.
Monthly breakdown
| Depreciation 5,801 over 5 years, straight-line to a 2,486 residual | $96.68 |
| Electricity 9.0 kWh/month at 0.140/kWh | $1.27 |
| Cost of capital 4.0%/yr on 5,386 average capital employed | $17.95 |
| Monthly cost before tax | $115.90 |
| Electricity tax shield Running costs are deductible business expenses | −$0.27 |
| First-year expensing §179 (100.0%) | −$29.00 |
| Monthly economic cost after tax | $86.63 |
Three different numbers, deliberately
Assumptions and sources (verified 2026-09-07)
- VAT rate: No US federal VAT · verified 2026-09-07
- Marginal tax rate: IRS Publication 542 — Corporations · verified 2026-09-07
- VAT recoverable fraction: site assumption · verified 2026-09-07
- Useful life: IRS Publication 946 — How To Depreciate Property · verified 2026-09-07
- Electricity price: Site assumption · verified 2026-09-07
| Hosted model | USD/1M output | Break-even | API at your volume | Verdict | Comparison type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen3.8 Flash Alibaba Cloud | $0.42 | 56.3M/mo | $21 | API cheaper | Different model |
| DeepSeek-V4 Flash DeepSeek | $0.66 | 35.8M/mo | $33 | API cheaper | Different model |
| DeepSeek-V4 Pro DeepSeek | $1.98 | 11.9M/mo | $100 | Local cheaper | Different model |
| DeepSeek V4 Pro (Together) Together AI | $4.40 | 4.1M/mo | $292 | Local cheaper | Different model |
| GLM-5.3 Z.ai | $4.40 | 5.6M/mo | $215 | Local cheaper | Different model |
| Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic | $5.00 | 6.7M/mo | $179 | Local cheaper | Different model |
| Hardware | Decode | Price | Fit |
|---|---|---|---|
| RTX 5090 workstation (1x 32 GB) | ~303–435 t/s | €3.699 | Comfortable |
| Quad RTX 5090 workstation (4x 32 GB) | ~281–404 t/s | €13.999 | Comfortable |
| Dual RTX 5090 workstation (2x 32 GB) | ~216–311 t/s | €6.499 | Comfortable |
| Used RTX 4090 workstation (24 GB) | ~209–301 t/s | €2.299 | Comfortable |
| RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell workstation (96 GB) | ~188–270 t/s | €11.499 | Comfortable |
| RTX PRO 6000 Max-Q workstation (96 GB, 300 W) | ~188–270 t/s | €11.999 | Comfortable |
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